San Francisco County, CA
Wildfire Risk Assessment & Home Hardening ROI Analysis
Wildfire Risk Overview
San Francisco County in California is in the 54th percentile nationally for risk to homes, the moderate risk category. San Francisco County's mean risk to homes ranks at the 54th percentile of U.S. counties: at or above 54% of them (USDA Forest Service, Wildfire Risk to Communities). This is a rank among counties, not a dollar loss.
San Francisco County's mean annual burn probability is at or above 51% of U.S. counties (national percentile rank, USDA Forest Service, Wildfire Risk to Communities). A percentile rank compares counties with one another. It is not the chance that a fire reaches a home in a given year. San Francisco County's mean annual burn probability is 0.06% a year: the average across its wildfire-exposed land (USDA Forest Service, Wildfire Risk to Communities, 2026 county summary). It is a county figure, not a forecast for any one home. About 97% of the county's buildings sit in the minimal-exposure zone, where the chance is lower.
No Wildland-Urban Interface class is published for San Francisco County in our dataset, so none is shown. Homes in WUI areas face elevated wildfire exposure due to proximity to fire-prone vegetation.
National Risk Percentile
54/100
A rank among U.S. counties
Annual Burn Probability
0.06% a year
Likelihood rank: at or above 51% of U.S. counties
WUI Class
N/A
FHSZ Tier
N/A
Source: USDA Forest Service, Wildfire Risk to Communities, county summary, 2026 release (doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0030).
Insurance & Market Context
San Francisco County has a FAIR Plan risk assessment of high, from the California FAIR Plan's own count of policies in force in the county and its growth. The California FAIR Plan is the insurer of last resort for homeowners who cannot obtain coverage in the private market. Counties with higher FAIR Plan enrollment and year-over-year growth signal increasing difficulty in obtaining standard homeowners insurance. For homeowners in San Francisco County, this makes home hardening both a safety and a financial question.
Home hardening can help homeowners in San Francisco County qualify for Safer from Wildfires discounts under California Department of Insurance regulations. Completing IBHS-rated measures, particularly roof covering, vents, and defensible space, can reduce premiums depending on the insurer and fire hazard severity zone; the discount each insurer gives is set by that insurer. A homeowner who achieves Over Standard IBHS designation today locks in savings against a rising premium baseline.
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This page shows default estimates for a typical home. Enter your actual home details — square footage, construction year, insurance premium, and replacement value — to get a personalized hardening ROI analysis for San Francisco County.
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Data Sources & Methodology
Burn probability and the national percentile ranks come from the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities (WRC) county summary, 2026 release (doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2024-0030). Fire hazard severity zones are from CalFire FRAP. Insurance discount estimates follow the California Department of Insurance Safer from Wildfires framework. Hardening cost estimates are reference ranges informed by IBHS guidance with a regional cost multiplier; they are estimates, not contractor quotes. Financial projections use a discount rate based on the 10-year Treasury yield and an insurance price inflation assumption; each paid answer reports the exact rates it used. All calculations are deterministic with no AI-generated content.